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Dollar holds near multi-week tops on higher-for-longer U.S. rates

February 23, 2023 / 1:39 PM
Sharjah24 - Reuters: On Thursday, a day after minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting supported, but did not strengthen, the markets' perception that the central bank will hike rates further, the dollar managed to hold off multi-week highs versus other major currencies.
The euro EUR=EBS was flat at $1.0606, just above its near seven-week trough of $1.0598 hit in the previous session, and the dollar sat at 134.8 Japanese yen JPY=EBS, just off its two-month top of 135.2 reached on Tuesday.

The dollar index =USD, which tracks the greenback against six major peers was at 104.48, steady on the day.

The index climbed 0.36% on Wednesday as minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed nearly all Fed policymakers favoured a scale down in the pace of interest rate hikes, but they also indicated curbing unacceptably high inflation would be the "key factor" in how much further rates need to rise.

The impact of the minutes was slightly lessened as the meeting preceeded a series of indicators released in February, most notably jobs data, that showed the U.S. economy is performing well, leaving the Fed greater scope to raise rates to bring down inflation.

Traders of futures tied to the Federal Reserve's policy rate largely stuck to the view the central bank will keep raising rates by a quarter of a point at its next three meetings.

The recent increase in these expectations has caused the dollar index to rise steadily from a low of 100.8 in early February, but it is still well off its 20-year top of 114.78 hit last October - a time of fear about the health of the global economy, and when the Federal Reserve was raising rates more aggressively than other central banks around the world.

"The easy part of the short USD trade is over," said Galvin Chia, emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets.

"Until major releases can change the view, the market bias looks like good news is bad news - a resilient U.S. economy is risk-negative."

Something that is bad news for risk sentiment, in this case, the likelihood of higher interest rates, would typically boost safe-haven curencies like the dollar.

Elswehere, sterling GBP=D3 was steady at $1.2045, the Swiss franc CHF=EBS was flat at 0.9315 per dollar, and the Australian dollar AUD=D3 was a rare gainer in the G10 pack, up 0.36% to $0.6823, having slid to a near seven-week low of $0.6795 on Wednesday.
February 23, 2023 / 1:39 PM

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